Professor cautions that UN reset could deepen Libya’s divisions

Libya’s fragile political landscape could face dangerous repercussions if an alternative United Nations-led approach is implemented without careful consideration, according to political science professor Mustafa Ben Hamouda.

Speaking to Asharq News, Ben Hamouda said he feared the political cost of what he described as a potential shift in the UN’s strategy in Libya, at a time when the country remains divided between rival spheres of influence and continues to grapple with the entrenched presence of powerful militias and armed formations.

Deadlock may justify change, but at what price?

Ben Hamouda acknowledged that years of political stalemate have created conditions in which an alternative approach may appear inevitable.

“The impasse that has persisted for years makes an alternative path seem necessary,” he said. “But have we truly considered the price at which it will be implemented?”

Libya has endured prolonged institutional paralysis, with competing executive and legislative bodies claiming legitimacy, amid repeated failures to hold national elections intended to unify the state’s fractured institutions.

Complex realities on the ground

The professor cautioned that sidelining or dissolving existing executive and legislative structures would be far from straightforward. Behind each institution, he noted, stand military, tribal and even popular support bases.

“These components are not isolated entities,” he said. “Each is backed by security and social alliances. Moving to embody such an option requires first thinking carefully about the potential repercussions, which could be severe and lead to something worse.”

His remarks underscore the intricate web of loyalties and power structures that continue to shape Libya’s post-2011 political order, complicating any externally driven reset of the process.

Warning of civil war scenario

Ben Hamouda warned that mishandling the proposed approach could risk plunging the country back into civil conflict, with what he described as catastrophic consequences.

He urged policymakers and international actors to subject any alternative UN-led framework to rigorous scrutiny, particularly in its practical steps, to ensure it does not produce outcomes contrary to its stated objectives.

Libya has experienced multiple rounds of armed confrontation over the past decade, and while large-scale hostilities have subsided in recent years, tensions remain high amid unresolved disputes over legitimacy, governance and control of state resources.

For Ben Hamouda, the message is clear: any recalibration of the political track must balance urgency with caution, lest attempts to break the deadlock inadvertently deepen the crisis.