Analyst doubts impact of Berlin talks on Libya

European powers are seeking to impose a form of guardianship over Libya’s political process, according to Turkish political analyst Muhannad Hafizoglu, who has criticised what he described as superficial international engagement with the crisis.

Speaking to regional media, Hafizoglu argued that European initiatives often fall short of delivering concrete outcomes. “What we see are lofty statements and media-friendly proposals with little real-world effect,” he said.

He expressed scepticism over the prospects of the upcoming Berlin conference, noting that past European efforts in Libya have frequently lacked substance and consistency. “There’s little to suggest this meeting will produce anything fundamentally new,” he added.

Hafizoglu maintained that a more effective path forward lies in closer coordination between Libya, Egypt, and Turkey, alongside the involvement of key Libyan stakeholders. He described this as the only viable framework for progress, given the current international climate.

Beyond that, he pointed to the complex involvement of major powers — including Russia and the United States — who remain active players in the Libyan file, but whose focus, he suggested, is currently diverted. “With the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel dominating their attention, the bandwidth for resolving Libya’s crisis is shrinking,” he observed.

Looking ahead, Hafizoglu predicted a period of inertia. “From now until the end of the year, we’re likely to hear more calls for elections, new committees, and procedural steps — largely symbolic, aimed at managing public sentiment rather than delivering change.”

“The coming months,” he said, “will likely be marked by stagnation, as key players revert to delay tactics and temporary fixes, rather than meaningful political movement.”