Ceasefire holds, but risks remain, Lebanon’s president warns

Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun sought to reassure the country on Thursday, stressing that diplomacy remains Beirut’s preferred route to prevent a slide back into conflict, even as he acknowledged the sensitivity of persuading Hezbollah to place national priorities above military posturing.

Speaking from the patriarchal seat in Bkerke after talks with Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rai, President Aoun warned against developments that could reignite tensions along Lebanon’s southern border. “Things are heading towards positive conclusions,” he said, hinting at understandings being forged behind the scenes that go beyond a temporary truce.

The president portrayed diplomacy as Lebanon’s primary shield against renewed violence, with the aim of transforming the fragile ceasefire into lasting stability that could open the door to reconstruction and national recovery after years of crisis.

Looking ahead, Aoun voiced hope for what he described as the “birth of a new Lebanon” next year, signalling aspirations for sustained peace and social renewal. At the same time, he pointed to persistent Israeli violations in the south, describing the area as a “bleeding wound” despite a ceasefire that has been in place since November 2024. His remarks amounted to an implicit appeal for stronger international enforcement of the truce.

Earlier this month, Lebanon held its first direct civilian-level talks with Israel since 1983. The discussions, chaired by former ambassador to Washington Simon Karam, were conducted under a United Nations-backed mechanism tasked with monitoring the ceasefire. The panel brings together representatives from Lebanon, France, Israel, the United States and the UN peacekeeping force UNIFIL.

Despite the president’s cautious optimism, Hezbollah’s continued armed presence remains a central obstacle to a durable settlement. The group argues that its arsenal serves as a deterrent against potential Israeli aggression, while Israel and several international actors maintain that the existence of a parallel military force undermines UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and the authority of the Lebanese army in the south.

The Lebanese state says it is working to reinforce the army’s role as the sole guarantor of security along the border. Hezbollah, however, insists that border arrangements do not amount to disarmament, linking its weapons to broader regional calculations and balances of power between Tehran and Western capitals, rather than decisions driven solely by Lebanese national interest.