Trump’s Iran policy turns threats into bargaining tools

Political analyst Mohammed Huni has said the dramatic shift in US President Donald Trump’s rhetoric towards Iran reflects a deliberate negotiating strategy aimed at combining maximum pressure with sudden diplomatic openings.

In an opinion piece, Huni argued that Trump’s rapid transition from threats of destruction to talk of a “golden age” for the Middle East was not a random contradiction or rhetorical misstep, but rather part of a broader political doctrine designed to maximise leverage over adversaries while maintaining room for manoeuvre.

“Within just a few hours, the world witnessed a dramatic transformation in Trump’s discourse towards Iran,” Mohammed Huni wrote, noting that the US president had moved from language centred on “hell” and total destruction to promises of reconstruction and economic cooperation across the region.

According to Huni, the shift reflects what diplomatic and intelligence circles often describe as a strategy of “maximum pressure followed by surprise”, a model Trump has repeatedly used in previous international disputes.

Huni said the approach relies on escalating threats to their highest level before abruptly pivoting towards reconciliation and potential agreements, creating uncertainty among opponents and increasing Washington’s tactical flexibility.

He pointed to Trump’s previous dealings with North Korea, China and Mexico as examples of the same pattern. In each case, Trump initially adopted an aggressive posture before later opening the door to negotiations and partial settlements.

“In the Iranian context, Trump appears to be betting that military and economic pressure will force Tehran back to the negotiating table under more favourable conditions for the United States,” Huni wrote.

The analyst added that the strategy also serves domestic political purposes, allowing Trump to maintain his image as a strong and uncompromising leader among conservative supporters while avoiding the costs of a prolonged military conflict.

However, Huni warned that the approach carries significant risks, particularly in the Middle East, where miscalculations can quickly trigger wider regional escalation.

He argued that Iran may interpret Trump’s sudden moderation in tone as a sign of weakness rather than a negotiating tactic, potentially encouraging Tehran to adopt a more rigid position.

Huni also noted growing concerns among Washington’s Gulf allies, who fear that any future understanding between the United States and Iran could come at the expense of their long-term security interests.

“Trump has transformed negotiation into a form of political theatre that combines pressure, unpredictability and economic pragmatism,” Mohammed Huni wrote, adding that the coming weeks would determine whether the strategy leads to a genuine diplomatic breakthrough or another cycle of confrontation.

The comments come amid heightened regional tensions and ongoing international scrutiny over the future direction of US policy towards Iran and the wider Middle East.