Khartoum faces rising flood risk as Grand Ethiopian Dam operations stall

Dr. Abbas Sharaki, Professor of Geology and Water Resources at Cairo University, has warned of a significant risk of flooding along both banks of the Blue Nile and the Nile near Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, by late August. This situation mirrors conditions seen before the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

Currently, the GERD reservoir holds approximately 54 billion cubic metres of water, down slightly from 60 billion cubic metres last September. Daily inflows into the reservoir have risen from 20 million to 80 million cubic metres, with expectations to reach 225 million cubic metres per day by July.

Dr. Sharaki noted on his Facebook account that the failure to operate the dam’s turbines this year is an anomaly. However, if this issue continues in coming years, the full natural flood is expected to pass by the end of July.

This disruption in dam operations coincides with an increased likelihood of above-normal rainfall across much of the northern Greater Horn of Africa during the critical June–September rainy season, according to the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre.

While the floods pose risks and have caused damage to some communities in Sudan, they remain the primary source of flood irrigation for many farmers along the Blue Nile. These floods help compensate for water shortages experienced in 2023 and 2024, when approximately 43 billion cubic metres of water were stored in the GERD.

The difficulties faced by farmers have been compounded by the absence of an irrigation network to offset the lack of river flooding—an issue aggravated by ongoing challenges in Sudan since April 2023.