US airstrikes set back Iran’s nuclear program but don’t destroy it

A preliminary assessment by US intelligence indicates that recent American airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities have not eliminated the country’s nuclear capabilities but have set the program back by a few months.

This development coincides with a fragile ceasefire brokered by US President Donald Trump between Iran and Israel.

On Tuesday, both Iran and Israel indicated a pause in their air conflict following Trump’s public reprimand over violations of a ceasefire he announced earlier that day. After 12 days of hostilities — including US attacks on Iran’s uranium-enrichment sites — both sides claimed success.

Over the weekend, President Trump stated that the deployment of large bunker-buster bombs had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program. However, according to sources familiar with intelligence reports, initial assessments do not fully support this claim. These sources said Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles remain and much of the nuclear infrastructure, which is largely underground, was only partially damaged, resulting in a delay estimated at one or two months. Iran maintains its nuclear work is for civilian energy purposes.

The White House dismissed the intelligence report as inaccurate. The Defense Intelligence Agency’s evaluation reportedly concluded that while entrances to two nuclear sites were sealed, the underground facilities were not destroyed. Some centrifuges reportedly remained intact following the strikes.

In remarks to the United Nations Security Council, the US administration described the strikes as having “degraded” Iran’s nuclear program, falling short of earlier claims of total destruction. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the attacks removed the immediate threat of nuclear weapons and vowed to prevent Iran from rebuilding its program.

“We have removed two existential threats: nuclear annihilation and the threat of ballistic missiles,” Netanyahu said. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian described the ceasefire as a “great victory” and reportedly told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that Tehran was ready to address differences with the US.

The conflict began on June 13 with an Israeli surprise airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities and senior military commanders. Iran responded with missile attacks on Israeli military sites and cities. Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons.

By Tuesday evening, Israel lifted military restrictions, and Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv reopened. Iranian airspace was also reported to be reopening. The White House said Trump personally facilitated the ceasefire agreement with Netanyahu and maintained communication with Iranian officials.

Both Iran and Israel took several hours to acknowledge the ceasefire and accused each other of violations. Trump criticised both but particularly Israel, urging it to “calm down now.” Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated Israel would respect the ceasefire unless Iran violated it. Iranian officials made a similar commitment contingent on Israel’s compliance.

The sustainability of the ceasefire remains uncertain given longstanding tensions. Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir described the pause as the end of a “significant chapter” but said operations against Iranian-backed groups in Gaza would continue. Iran’s military warned Israel and the US to learn from the “crushing blows” it delivered during the conflict.

Iranian authorities reported 610 deaths and over 4,700 injuries from Israeli strikes. Iranian missile attacks resulted in 28 deaths in Israel, marking the first significant breach of Israeli air defences.

Following the ceasefire, global oil prices fell and stock markets rose, reflecting reduced concerns over supply disruptions from the Gulf region.

Earlier on Tuesday, Trump expressed frustration with both sides over ceasefire violations, particularly criticising Israel. Netanyahu’s office confirmed an Israeli strike near Tehran in response to Iranian missile launches shortly after the ceasefire was due to start. Iran denied missile launches and accused Israel of continuing attacks beyond the ceasefire deadline.

For many Iranians, the end of hostilities brought relief. “The war is over. It never should have started,” said Reza Sharifi, returning to Tehran.